Well, it's been a bummer of a week. The real question is whether it's justified.
Welcome to another Fletcher Friday Report. Every Friday we stack up Fletcher's performance against the S&P 500 index, and yes, this week volatility made things a bit of a downer. Let's dig in and talk it through.
Volatility, Up Close and Personal
Last week I got a little long-winded about Fletcher's Sharpe ratio and just how volatile it can be. The ups, the downs, and the big question: is the ride worth it? Are the returns worth all the drama?
This week, we got to experience that volatility firsthand.
A handful of things have been stirring up the broader market: Iran, inflation, and interest rates. Early in the week, it all felt like an overreaction to me. I was watching the numbers and could see things starting to settle down. By the time Friday rolled around, I fully expected a nice bounce back into positive territory.
No such luck.
I'm still feeling bullish, but we do have a few hurdles to clear first. Again, that's Iran, inflation, and interest rates. Even so, I believe we'll see some positive movement between now and the end of the year.
The Numbers
As I said, it's been a rough week, especially for Fletcher.
- This week: Fletcher gave up 12%, while the S&P only gave up 2%.
- Month to date: Fletcher is down 1%, and the S&P is basically flat.
- Year to date: Fletcher is down quite a bit from last week, sitting at 194%. The S&P is at roughly 12%.
- Last three months: Fletcher is at about 26%, compared to about 2% for the S&P.
- Last six months: Fletcher is at about 4%, and the S&P is at about 9%.
Looking Ahead to Year-End
As the end of the year approaches, there's plenty of chatter about how the market behaves during an election cycle. We're now well into the fourth quarter, and according to a quick Google search I did, historical averages point to a strong Q4.
I didn't come across anything compelling one way or the other about who wins the House or the Senate. So I'm sticking with what I said earlier: I'm optimistic about what lies ahead.
Let's watch it unfold together, week by week.
Until Next Week
That'll do it for now. Thanks for reading, don't forget to go vote, and I'll see you next week with more numbers.