Fletcher Friday Report: September 4, 2026

It's been a sobering week for Fletcher — not because of the market, but because of my own relentless pursuit to poke holes in it. Welcome back to the Fletcher Friday Report.

In this week's post, I'll walk through the latest signals and show you how Fletcher stacked up against the S&P 500. There's a lot to unpack, so let's get into it.

A Good Week, and an Ugly One

Here's the thing: performance-wise, this was a genuinely good week for Fletcher. But it was also a bit of an ugly one, and I want to be upfront about why.

I've always promised to be straightforward and honest with you — to let you walk with me through the good, the bad, and the ugly of this whole Fletcher journey. This week landed squarely in "the ugly" category, so let's talk about it.

In my ongoing effort to stress-test Fletcher and find its weak points, I found one. It's tied to one of the many rules Fletcher uses to generate its signals. With that "shoot holes in it" mindset, I've been running fresh backtests using additional data sources to challenge the backtesting I already had in place.

While digging through the numbers, I noticed a trend that felt off. A little more digging turned up the culprit: part of the data I'd previously collected had an error in it.

That error matters because Fletcher's rules are stakes in the ground — non-negotiable, data-driven, and unemotional by design. But when a rule strays because the underlying data is flawed, it can snowball fast. That's exactly what I uncovered after going through everything with a fine-toothed comb.

I'll be candid: what I found appears significant, and I'll have more to share soon about just how significant it turns out to be. Since this surfaced only in the past few days, I need some time to properly sort through it and assess the full impact.

The short version, for now: this affects the volatility shown in Fletcher's reported performance. How much volatility is still to be determined, and I'll be working to nail that down — together, out in the open, like everything else with Fletcher.

This Week's Numbers

Now, on to the actual numbers for Fletcher and the S&P this week.

Fletcher sent new signals on September 1st, and even though we're only four days into the month, the results have already been positive.

Before jumping into September, let's put a bookend on August. The month closed out on Monday with Fletcher up over 11% for August, while the S&P came in at almost 2% for the same period.

Then, on Tuesday, September 1st, Fletcher sent its new signals. Since the start of the month — roughly four trading days — Fletcher is up over 7%, compared to the S&P's roughly 1% gain.

And year to date, using live data (not backtested), Fletcher stands at 163%. We went live in January, so this is the number I have the most confidence in — it's what my own portfolio is actually experiencing. The S&P, for comparison, is up 13% year to date.

What's Next

I'll be back next week with more numbers, and I'll keep bringing you along as I dig deeper into the backtesting issue. The good news, as I mentioned, is that the live 2026 data still stands at 163% — and I'm very pleased with that.

Beyond that, my focus is on properly defining volatility, risk, and drawdown for all of us. And together, we'll take a look at what Fletcher's algorithm says about the past 10 years through backtesting.

That wraps up another week in the books for Fletcher. Thanks for reading, and to learn more, head over to FletcherInvestor.com.

Have a great week.