The Friday Fletcher Report: July 3, 2026

Welcome back to the Fletcher Friday Report! Today is July 3rd, 2026 — and yes, the market is closed today for the holiday, so all numbers here are based on yesterday's close. Fletcher is an investment algorithm I built around simple monthly signals: buy, hold, and sell. Let's see how the week shook out.

A Week of Whiplash

After last week's Micron-fueled momentum and a generally rosy outlook heading into the back half of the year, this week brought a bit of a reality check. Nothing catastrophic — I didn't see any "the sky is falling" headlines, and honestly, even if I had, I'd have tuned them out. But with six months of strong gains in the rearview mirror, some profit-taking was probably inevitable. People lock in wins. I get it. I'm just not sure what their plan is for getting back in.

Fletcher sent out its July signals on Wednesday the 1st. The timing, unfortunately, wasn't ideal — the market pulled back almost immediately after. Moments like that are exactly why the system exists. My job isn't to second-guess the algorithm; it's to follow it. On that note, one of this month's signals is a stock Fletcher last flagged back in 2020. It sat on the list for a stretch back then, but it's been nearly six years since we've seen it show up. Curious to watch how it performs from here.

On the broader market — it was a turbulent week. South Korea's market saw enough volatility to trigger circuit breakers, which I'd imagine sent some ripples our way, though that's speculation on my part. What it reinforced for me, once again, is just to ignore the noise and stick to the plan. The market is going to do what it does on any given day. Fletcher currently holds four stocks — concentrated, yes, but that's by design. Several outlets I follow suggested the week's moves were an overreaction, and I'm inclined to agree. I expect we'll see things settle and move forward in the days or weeks ahead.

The Numbers

• This week: Fletcher -8%, (month to date also -8% — signals rebalanced on the 1st, so only a few days in)
• Year to date: Fletcher +150%, S&P +9%

The YTD number has come down from last week's high, and that's not fun to watch. But 150% versus 9%? I'll take that trade every day of the week. The pullback was real — driven in part by a disappointing jobs report and downward revisions to prior months' numbers, layered on top of general profit-taking after a strong first half. Context matters here.

On Market Timing

The profit-taking trend this week got me thinking about timing more broadly. If you cash out to lock in gains, the hard part is figuring out when to get back in. That's a timing game, and I'm genuinely not good at it. My guess is most people aren't. The widely held view is that timing the market consistently just doesn't work — and that's the operating assumption I've built Fletcher around.

Worth noting: Fletcher's signals always go out on the first of the month, and the backtesting was disciplined about consistent trade execution timing. That said, as an individual subscriber, you absolutely have the flexibility to act on signals at your own pace. I heard from one Fletcher investor this week who did a little market timing of their own and came out ahead — good for them. But that's a personal call, and we each carry our own risk.

Reader Questions

"What are the risks of using Fletcher?" The honest answer: you can lose money. Fletcher concentrates its positions — currently four stocks — and follows its rules regardless of what the market is doing. That can mean short-term losses, and it does happen. Backtesting shows that roughly 31% of signals end up negative, meaning almost one in three is a miss. But the two out of three that hit tend to outperform the one that doesn't, which is what keeps the overall math working in Fletcher's favor.

"How much do I need to invest to make the subscription worthwhile?" My personal take is that you'd want at least $10,000 committed to Fletcher signals to really feel the ROI on the subscription cost. And just to be clear on how this works: you're not handing money over to a fund or a manager. Everything is self-directed in your own account. Fletcher provides the signals — what you do with them is entirely up to you.

To put some real numbers to it: I know of one investor who started the year with $200,000 allocated to Fletcher signals. Based on this week's performance, that account is sitting at or around $500,000. When you're weighing the subscription cost against what the system could potentially do for your portfolio, that's the kind of math worth running.

If you've got questions about the subscription or what it costs, feel free to reach out — happy to chat.

That wraps it up for this week. Thanks for reading, and I hope you have a fantastic 4th of July weekend. To learn more about the Fletcher algorithm, visit FletcherInvestor.com.

Have a great one — see you next Friday.