Fletcher Friday Report: August 7, 2026

A watched pot never boils. Can you relate? I sure can — more on that in a minute, because it turned out to be the perfect metaphor for this week.

It's been an action-packed week, full of earnings reports and some pretty wild market reactions to go along with them. Let's get into it.

Earnings Season in Full Swing

This week alone, almost 400 companies from the S&P reported earnings — and roughly 75% of them beat expectations. Some of the bigger names that topped the mark included Caterpillar, Palantir, AMD, Pfizer, and Disney, just to name a few.

Sounds like good news, right? Or is it? The market's reaction has been... interesting, to put it mildly.

Honestly, I don't fully understand how earnings and market reaction correlate, and I've tried to figure it out over the years. It's just not in my wheelhouse. How does a company beat expectations and then immediately drop 5%? A subscriber asked me this week whether I've ever tried to invest based on earnings timing. My answer: yes, and I've failed miserably at it. So it's not something I count on, and honestly, I don't think it's something anyone fully understands. A lot of it comes down to market sentiment — Mr. Market, if you're familiar with that idea — plus a dozen other variables all moving at once. There's a quote from Warren Buffett along the lines of: if you understood all the variables, you could time the market. The problem is nobody knows all the variables.

The way the market responded to this week's earnings just reinforced that for me. Even the headlines couldn't agree with each other. I'm not exaggerating — I saw two headlines sitting right next to each other. One said AMD stock was tanking after earnings. The other said AMD's earnings revealed an ultra-bullish future. Same company, same day, same numbers. This is exactly why I don't try to pick stocks on my own.

The Numbers

Here's how Fletcher stacked up against the S&P 500 this week, based on closing prices:

• Week over week (from last Friday): Fletcher up 5%, S&P up over 3%
• Month to date (new signals went out Monday, the 1st): Fletcher up 2%, S&P up 2%
• Year to date: Fletcher up 129%, S&P up 13%

I know I sound like a broken record saying this, but short-term numbers just aren't a great judge of Fletcher's performance — and honestly, they're not a great judge of the S&P either.

That said, I've been digging into some deeper performance reporting now that we have live data starting from January 1st, which makes these numbers feel a lot more real. We also still have backtesting data going back to 2018. If you put a pin in July 31st and look back 12 months, Fletcher performed at an annualized rate of 366%. Yes, you read that right — 366%. We've had an incredible bull market to be fair, but that's still a remarkable number. Looking back 24 months from that same July 31st pin, the number comes out to 1,156%. Some of that stretch includes backtested data, but it's still an eye-opening figure.

I've got more detailed numbers I'm working through — best month, worst month, best 12-month stretch, worst 12-month stretch, and more. If there's something specific you'd like to see, reach out through the website and let me know. I love putting these reports together, so don't be shy about asking.

You Can't Microwave a Brisket

Monday was the first trading day of the month, which meant new Fletcher signals. After executing the signals in my own portfolio, I texted a few family members who also run the Fletcher system and told them: now we just let it bake. Don't touch it, don't worry about it — just let it be.

My brother texted back a line that stuck with me: "You can't microwave a brisket." Being a Texan and a barbecue guy myself, that one hit home.

And then there's my own unending curiosity about how the market and Fletcher are doing day to day. Confession: I check throughout the day, even though it really doesn't change anything. It's just curiosity getting the better of me. But it's what got me thinking about the whole "watched pot" idea in the first place.

All of these — the brisket, the pot, the patience — are good reminders of how Fletcher is meant to operate. Do the first-of-the-month rebalance, then relax. That mindset takes the pressure off having to watch it every day or every week, even if my own curiosity doesn't always let me follow my own advice.

Until Next Week

That'll do it for this week. Thanks for reading along. I'm looking forward to seeing what August has in store for all of us.

Want to learn more about Fletcher signals? Head over to FletcherInvestor.com.

Have a great week, and I'll check in with you again next Friday.