Fletcher Friday Report: July 31, 2026
Happy Friday, and welcome back. Today's the 31st, and as always, we're putting Fletcher up against the S&P 500 to see how things stack up. Quick reminder for anyone new: Fletcher is the investing algorithm I built to send out simple monthly signals to subscribers. It's been a week of real ups and downs — mildly put — so let's dig in.
A Roller Coaster of a Week
Here we are again, coming off what genuinely felt like a wild week. Actually, "felt like" undersells it — it was a wild week. Yesterday I had one of those half-laugh, half-cry moments and ended up texting my brother a roller coaster meme, because that's honestly the best way to describe it. This week put real pressure on my conviction, both with Fletcher and with my portfolio as a whole. More on that shortly.
A Little Wisdom from "Mostly Right"
I catch a bit of YouTube and cable business coverage now and then, and Charles Payne over on Fox Business is someone I generally find levelheaded. He had a recurring guest on this week, Nancy Tengler (hoping I've got that spelled right), who runs a firm with a Nashville office called Laffer Tengler. You might recognize the Laffer name — Art Laffer, who advised under Reagan and is known for the Laffer Curve. He's a Nashville guy too, worth looking up if you're not familiar. I believe it's actually his son who's in business with Nancy these days.
Anyway, something she said on that Fox segment stuck with me: we're going to make mistakes — the goal is to be mostly right. That phrase really resonated.
So how does "mostly right" apply to Fletcher? I've mentioned before that roughly two out of three signals land positive. I went digging a bit further this week, and here's what the backtesting (going back to 2018) shows: the average positive monthly signal comes in around 17%, while the average negative signal lands around -10%. That's a solid definition of mostly right in my book.
And the net result? Still using that same backtesting data back to 2018, the average monthly return comes out to 7%. Monthly — not annual. Even with a rough week like this one in July, that's still a number I'm happy to stand behind.
The Numbers
Let's get into the actual performance:
- This week: Fletcher down almost 9%, S&P roughly flat at about -1%
- Month to date: Fletcher down almost 26%, S&P essentially flat
- Year to date: Fletcher at 126%, S&P at 9%
I always like to remind everyone — myself included — that these are short-term snapshots, and short-term isn't the best lens for judging any investing system, Fletcher included. I'd call one month short-term, full stop. For Fletcher specifically, even a full year can qualify as short-term in a volatile stretch. I'm actually working on a future report that looks at Fletcher's performance over 6, 12, and 24-month windows — those feel like more meaningful timeframes to me.
On Headlines, Adjectives, and This Week's Volatility
Last week I poked a little fun at the press for how dramatic their headlines get — words like "tumble" and "slaughter" that feel more like overreaction than reporting. This week, I'll admit, a few choice adjectives (maybe even an expletive or two) might've actually been earned. If I had to sum the week up in one word, it'd be volatility.
Fletcher and the rest of my portfolio bounced around plenty this week — and then yesterday delivered a genuine surge that caught me off guard. So I guess that's volatility cutting both ways. All told, my overall portfolio swung about 18% this week. That'll test anyone's conviction.
How's your conviction holding up right now? How's your portfolio handling the swings? This week was a real personal test for me — sticking with the plan, keeping the daily and weekly noise in context, and trying to hold onto the bigger, longer-term picture.
A Story on Conviction (or the Lack of It)
Thought I'd share a slightly painful example from my own past, since it fits the theme. I was telling someone this week about how I got shaken out of Amazon stock back in 1998. I'd bought in during the latter half of that year, and between the ups and downs, I just didn't have the stomach for the ride — so I sold.
For some context: $1,000 invested in Amazon back then, factoring in every split and gain since, would be worth around $200,000 today. Yes, that's 28 years of hindsight talking, but the lesson about patience still holds up. Investing with real conviction is a discipline, and nobody ever promised it would be easy.
Catching Up
As usual, I want to bring in a few conversations from this week. There was some overlap between a chat I had and some of the threads I was reading on Reddit — the recurring theme was "catching up."
For me, catching up mostly means feeling behind on retirement savings. I can relate to that more than most. Running multiple businesses as an entrepreneur over the years meant some years I could max out my IRA contributions, and other years I couldn't contribute at all — one year, I actually had to pull money out. I'm 59 now and still feel that pull to grow the portfolio, and to do it faster than the slow-and-steady path would normally allow.
So "catching up" is very much on my mind. I'm trying to balance that with real risk management — being thoughtful about volatility in what I'm invested in. Fletcher is a big piece of how I'm trying to accelerate that catch-up. My confidence comes from two places: the backtesting data, and my own lived experience with Fletcher since January. I've currently got about a third of my portfolio committed to it.
What about you — are you feeling behind and trying to catch up? If so, what's your approach to accelerating your gains? I'd love to hear it.
Looking Ahead
That'll do it for this week's report. Thanks, as always, for reading along. New signals for August land Monday, and I'm hopeful for a strong month ahead — for Fletcher and for all of you too.
To learn more about how Fletcher works, head over to FletcherInvestor.com.
Have a great week, and I'll see you back here next Friday.