Fletcher Friday Report: July 24, 2026

A Busy Week

Welcome back to the Fletcher Friday Report, where we check in on how Fletcher — my homegrown investment algorithm — stacks up against the S&P 500. Fletcher runs on simple monthly signals: buy, hold, or sell. Nothing fancy, just a system.

If I had to sum up this week in one word, it'd be busy. And there's a lot behind that word.

Oil prices and the conflict in Iran are still making headlines, though things seem to be cooling slightly compared to earlier this year. The jobless claims report came in positive, and the market appears to have already priced that in. Tariffs are back in the news too — sentiment reads negative, but the market's reaction has felt oddly muted. Maybe we're all just a little fatigued from the endless tariff headlines at this point.

On the earnings side, things are looking up. Google is a good example of strong results this week. But that success comes with a catch: all that spending is fueling concerns about AI CapEx, and it seems to be weighing on the broader AI theme in the market.

As for Fletcher, it's been a positive week — nothing dramatic, just some back-and-forth among the positions. We're about a week out from the next round of signals, so for now we're in watch-and-wait mode.

Playing With Headlines

Speaking of watching — I can't help but notice the language financial headlines love to use. This week alone: plummet, slaughter, tumbles, surged, opportunity, puzzled, erased, surprised, slashed.

That's quite a lineup. So I'll ask you the same question I've been asking myself: do any of these words actually match your personal experience of the market this week? Does a 5% dip really deserve to be called a "plummet"? Did anything in your portfolio actually get "slashed" or "erased"?

For me, the market was just being the market. Sometimes its unpredictability is the most predictable thing about it.

The Numbers

Now, let's get into it.

• This week: Fletcher is up almost 4%. That follows a rough previous week, so this is a nice bounce-back.
• The S&P this week: essentially flat, down about half a point.
• Month-to-date (since July 1): Fletcher is down about 19%, while the S&P is down roughly 1%.
• Year-to-date: Fletcher is climbing back after coming off its June high, now sitting at about 147% — compared to the S&P's roughly 8%.

Are Systems Getting a Bad Rap?

One of my favorite parts of putting Fletcher out into the world is the conversations it sparks. This week, someone sent me a message with a bit of a sideways jab at "systems" in general. It got me thinking — I've never really described Fletcher as a system before, but that's exactly what it is: a structured process with steps designed to help manage investing.

So it made me wonder — do systems have some kind of bad reputation out there? Maybe I've just been oblivious to it.

Here's the thing though: we all use some kind of system, whether we call it that or not. And if we're using one, it's fair to judge it. Before Fletcher existed, I had my own system — a loose, emotional, constantly-evolving approach with zero real measurement or accountability. I tracked my portfolio, sure, but even that was sporadic at best. I'd call that a "personal system."

Then there are financial advisors, who bring their own systems to the table — usually built around a set of questions about your risk tolerance, age, goals, and so on. I'll admit my opinion on that approach leans a little cynical, but I'll save that rabbit hole for another day.

So back to judging systems: do you evaluate your financial advisor's approach? Do you measure and judge your own personal efforts? Are there other systems in your life you follow without really scrutinizing them?

And what should we be judging Fletcher on, exactly?

I know, I know — I'm raising a lot of questions and not handing out many answers today. But I think it's worth agreeing that all systems deserve to be judged. The harder question is: judged on what?

We've all heard "past performance does not guarantee future results." Fair enough. But doesn't past performance still inform our decisions at some level? How do you square that? Is there some kind of accuracy threshold that would satisfy you? Is there really a clean way to judge any system?

Even our own personal experience is, in a sense, past performance. There are no guarantees — but does that experience still give us enough to go on?

I don't have the answers, but I hope these questions spark a few good conversations of your own.

Until Next Week

That'll do it for this week's report. If you want to learn more about the Fletcher signals, head over to FletcherInvestor.com.

Thanks for reading, and here's hoping your week doesn't tumble or plummet — but instead surprises and surges in all the best ways.

Have a great week, and I'll catch you back here next Friday.