Fletcher Friday Report: July 17, 2026

Welcome back to the Fletcher Friday Report. Fletcher is an investment algorithm I built around simple monthly signals — buy, hold, and sell — and each week we stack it up against the S&P 500. It's been a busy, bumpy week with some significant pullbacks, so there's plenty to get into. Let's go.

When the Market Gets Rough, I Get Buying

It's been a turbulent week, particularly for a few of the Fletcher positions. Major pullback territory. Numbers in a moment, but first I want to talk about what I actually do when things head south like this — because I think it's worth being transparent about.

Looking back a couple of weeks: July 1st brought new signals, and just about every day and week since has been negative. So what's my move? I buy. When sentiment turns negative and I have conviction in a position, I look for opportunities to add — not in big swings, but I keep a little dry powder set aside for exactly these moments. I've added to a few of the Fletcher holdings this week, mostly on instinct, knowing full well it layers on more risk. That's a personal call, and it's one every investor has to make for themselves.

I'll also say this: I'm wired as an optimist. I've spent most of my career as an entrepreneur, and I think optimism is basically a job requirement for that life. That doesn't mean I'm immune to the nerves — I absolutely feel them — but when things start looking bleak, my brain tends to hunt for the upside rather than dwell on the downside. It's just how I'm built.

The Numbers

• This week: Fletcher -17%+, S&P -1.5%
• Month to date: Fletcher -22%, S&P roughly flat
• Year to date: Fletcher +138%, S&P +9%

That month-to-date number is painful, no question. Since the July 1st signals, it's been negative almost every day. But I keep coming back to the year-to-date view — 138% versus 9% is still a strong story, even after the recent slide. I'd rather judge Fletcher over a year or two than a rough few weeks in July.

To put the pullback in perspective: my personal portfolio has given back roughly five to six weeks of gains and is sitting around where it was in early June. Fletcher has given back closer to two months of growth, putting it in mid-May territory. That gap is a real illustration of Fletcher's volatility — concentrated positions amplify the swings in both directions. It's also exactly why I didn't put 100% of my portfolio behind Fletcher from the start. I started with about a third, and that diversification across my overall holdings has been a buffer.

That said — Fletcher is still outperforming my personal portfolio year to date. And more importantly, it's outperforming the S&P by a lot, which is the whole point.

What's Behind the Pullback

If you've had the news on this week, you've seen the semiconductor and AI-related story playing out in real time — major pullbacks across the sector. Honestly, it's a bummer to watch after such a strong first half. But markets ebb and flow, and nobody stays at peak valuation forever. I've enjoyed the ride, and I'm expecting another one.

On Risk, Diversification, and Charlie Munger

One of the things I genuinely love about doing these reports is the conversations it starts — different viewpoints, different investing approaches, different philosophies. And I'm always upfront that how I invest is not a prescription for anyone else. I have a high risk tolerance, and that's reflected in everything I do.

I'm not a broad market index fund person. Never have been. My view is that spreading risk too thin also spreads reward too thin. Risk mitigation and reward mitigation tend to come as a package deal, and I'd rather lean into the reward side with eyes open about the risk — which is the same philosophy that shaped how I built Fletcher.

I've been thinking a lot lately about Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett's longtime business partner. One of my favorite things he ever said was about diversification — he famously called it "de-worse-ification." I don't know if he invented the term or picked it up somewhere, but it's very Charlie, and it landed with me. It's witty and completely on point.

For what it's worth, here's how my own portfolio actually breaks down: every individual stock I own is through Fletcher signals — I'm not picking individual stocks on the side. Everything else is through concentrated ETFs, including one that holds fewer than 30 positions. So even outside of Fletcher, I'm not doing broad-basket index investing.

I've got plenty more thoughts on risk, planning, and all the nuance in between — I'll save some of that for future reports. But if you want to dig into it sooner, just say the word.

Thanks for reading through what was admittedly a rough week. I hope the market's been kinder to your portfolio. To learn more about the Fletcher algorithm, visit FletcherInvestor.com.

Have a great week — see you next Friday.