Driving fast: seatbelt or no seatbelt?
Welcome to another Fletcher Friday Report. Every Friday, I take a look at how Fletcher is performing compared to the S&P 500 index. And what do I mean by "driving fast"? Stick with me — let's see how many metaphors I can squeeze in this week.
October Is Off to a Promising Start
October is already looking pretty good. I didn't feel the historical September slump we so often talk about. Instead, there was plenty of green on the screen, and I'm happy about that.
Fletcher's new signals arrived yesterday. So far, 2026 has been mostly tech-driven, and mostly semiconductors at that. The October 1st signals looked a little different: pharma, biotech, and software. That's a bit more diversified than usual for Fletcher.
A Once-in-a-Generation Opportunity
Let me shift gears for a moment. I've mentioned Nancy Tengler of Laffer Tengler before. In a recent interview, she described the current market as a once-in-a-generation opportunity.
What I appreciate about Nancy is her calm demeanor. She sticks to the facts, with no hype. "Once in a generation" is her opinion, and it's one I'm inclined to share. She also backs up her recommendations with solid facts.
She made another point recently that caught my attention: a concentrated portfolio — one filled with familiar names leading the pack — can be challenging in the near term, but it generates excess total returns over time.
Concentration: The Fletcher Way
That struck me because it closely mirrors how Fletcher was built. Fletcher delivers a concentrated portfolio of three to six positions, and that concentration has been shown to outperform a more diversified approach. That's based on Fletcher's algorithm, and the live data we've tracked since January 1st has backed it up. We've had a nice run with that concentration.
As for Nancy's "familiar names," I'd say Fletcher's picks are partially — maybe mostly — well-known companies. Fletcher actually introduced me to SNDK (SanDisk), and SanDisk has carried a big share of Fletcher's returns this year. Other familiar names have shown up in the signals too. Even so, the September 1st signals included two names I'd never heard of.
That's one of the things I enjoy most about Fletcher. It looks at the data. It isn't relying on my base of knowledge to make its picks.
By the Numbers
Now for the numbers:
- This week: Fletcher was basically flat, just barely positive. The S&P was basically flat, just barely negative. Both stayed within one percentage point.
- September: Fletcher returned 22%, while the S&P returned about 1%.
- Year to date: Fletcher is sitting at 202%, and the S&P is closing in on 13%.
A quick reminder: Fletcher is a subscription to monthly signals, with three to six positions at a time. New subscriptions are currently closed, though current subscribers continue to receive their signals. And as always, Fletcher comes with a great deal of volatility, and with volatility can come risk.
Buckling Up
It feels like we've been going very fast lately, and that's where the seatbelt comes in. Or maybe it's a helmet if you're a motorcycle rider — pick your metaphor. For me, I feel the need for a seatbelt to keep me safe, because as fast as we're moving, I don't know what the volatility will bring as Fletcher continues to deliver new signals each month.
In my personal portfolio, Fletcher started at 30% of my holdings. It grew quickly — within this year — to 54%. Because I'm concerned about volatility, I'm slowly bringing Fletcher back down to around 30%. That's me buckling up, and it's how I'm trying to manage risk.
Getting a Second Opinion from AI
Fletcher doesn't use AI, but I do. I've been using it to help rebalance my portfolio, spot blind spots, and surface ideas that aren't even on my radar. I've used Gemini a little, but Claude most of the time.
My personal portfolio is weighted into three sections:
- Fletcher
- Tech ETFs — some of them very concentrated
- Balancing and hedging ETFs, combined with cash
Staying Aggressive, Staying Safe
All of this comes back to risk and my personal tolerance for it. I'm trying to stay aggressive because I believe the opportunity lies where the movement is, and I have that underlying desire to significantly outperform the S&P.
The AI modeling helps keep me from getting too far out over my skis. It acts as a voice of reason and adds some seatbelts, guardrails, helmets — whatever metaphor you prefer.
Even while rebalancing, I'm trying to stay true to what brought me to the party. And quite candidly, that's Fletcher. It's been a real shot in the arm for my portfolio.
There's no perfect answer here, and there's certainly no one-size-fits-all approach.
Your Turn
How are you navigating risk? I'm genuinely curious to learn from others. Feel free to email me at info@fletcherinvestor.com.
That'll do it for this week. Thanks for reading! I'll be back next week with more updates from Fletcher. Let's see what October brings — have a great week.