Fletcher Friday Report: September 11, 2026

It's another good week for Fletcher, and there's more backtesting data to wrestle with. Welcome back to the Fletcher Friday Report. It was a short trading week thanks to Labor Day on Monday, but there's still plenty to cover, so let's get into it.

Still Digging Into the Backtesting

Last week I shared that I'd been uncovering some new information with Fletcher through more in-depth backtesting. In Friday Reports before that, I'd shared some pretty exceptional data about Fletcher — and I'm throwing all of that out the window for now. The current backtesting data is painting a different picture, and I want to share it with you in real time as I work through it. There's still a lot of digging left to do, so consider yourself along for the ride.

This week I kept pushing further down that path, still gathering data and running the rules. I honestly don't know where all of this will take us yet, but I'll keep sharing what I learn as I get it.

As I mentioned last week, preliminary indicators show Fletcher carrying a higher risk quotient than I'd originally calculated. Fletcher's performance is also coming in lower than originally reported. Both of those are meaningful findings, and I'm working to get more clarity — for myself and for you.

New Ways of Measuring Risk

In trying to get a better handle on Fletcher's risk and performance, I've started leaning on two measurements I haven't used much in the past.

The first is beta. I haven't personally used this one a lot before, but with Fletcher it's giving me some real insight into how it moves — or doesn't move — with the market. Fletcher's beta is very low, but don't let that fool you. It's really all over the place. It's kind of its own wild entity — it doesn't track with the market or against it. It just does whatever it wants.

The second is the Sharpe ratio, named after the guy who invented it. Think of it as a measure of how bumpy the ride is, and whether that ride is worth taking. In other words, is there enough payoff to justify the drama? Right now, Fletcher's Sharpe ratio is low, and that's not great — it means there's a lot of bump without much payoff.

Between the two, Fletcher is currently running about three times more volatile than the S&P 500. I'm only working with nine years of backtest data at the moment, and I'm in the process of building out additional years, which should give us more context going forward.

From here, my next step is digging into which specific rules inside Fletcher are driving that overall volatility, and which signals are producing the weaker returns.

The Live Numbers Still Look Good

Let's shift gears from backtesting to live data — Fletcher's actual performance since January of this year. Backtesting has been a real wet blanket lately, but I'm genuinely encouraged by how the live numbers are holding up. I'm staying optimistic, just with a healthy dose of caution given everything the backtesting is showing.

Here's where things stand:

• Fletcher was up about 3% this week, while the S&P was down almost 1%.
• Since September 1st, our last signal date, Fletcher is up over 11%, while the S&P is essentially flat.
• Year to date, Fletcher is having an amazing year — currently sitting at 171%.

That year-to-date number is exactly why I'm still optimistic about Fletcher, even while the backtesting keeps turning up volatility and risk I'm trying to hold in context.

Rebalancing With Conviction (and a Little Help From Claude)

So how do I sum up this week for myself? I've been taking a hard look at my overall portfolio. Right now I'm holding Fletcher plus four ETFs, and I'm heavy in tech. I'm in the process of rebalancing, leaning on conviction, and even letting Claude weigh in with an opinion here and there. Claude recently pointed out — and I had to stop and sit with this — that if the goal is diversification... but that's not actually my goal.

So what is the goal? For me, it's high returns with a certain amount of stability. I'm okay with large drawdowns as long as they're followed by an amazing recovery, because I'm in this for the long haul, not chasing short time frames. That said, I'm not ignoring risk either. I do spread my eggs across multiple baskets — I just don't spread them so thin that I end up with nothing but average results. I'm after above-average.

A good example is SMH, my semiconductor-concentrated ETF. I carry a larger position there, and yes, it's had some big drawdowns — but the good years have far outweighed the bad ones.

I know a "win" looks different for everyone, and honestly, it can be a moving target even for me. Right now, my target allocations match my long-term plan, and the call is to hold.

What a Win Looks Like for Fletcher

For Fletcher specifically, a win right now means getting more clarity on the rules — figuring out which ones are working well, which need tweaking, which might need to go altogether, and whether there are new rules worth adding.

That's going to do it for this week's report. I hope to have more insights to share with you next week. Thanks for listening, and have a great week.